Wednesday, 23 April 2008

Med BioGene Tapped to Bring Lung Cancer Prognostic Test to Market


Basic shares: 29.1 million

Fully Diluted: 42.2 million

The news this morning on Med BioGene is significant on several levels :

1. The deal with University Health Network (UHN) for the development of LungExpressDx™ adds another product to the commercialization pipeline – given the size of the market for lung cancer diagnosis, the estimated value of a commercially approved test is approximately $300 million.

2. This deal raises MBI’s profile in the health and scientific community. The UHN’s confidence in Med BioGene’s management and its abilities speaks volumes, as they traditionally do similar agreements with much larger pharmaceutical companies.

3. The LungExpressDx™ initiative is already well developed by the University Health Network – they have already invested four years - so timing of a commercial deal for this product will likely be not far behind LymphExpressDx™ (lymphoma product).

4. MBI is still very much on track for the LymphExpressDx™ commercialization deal by the end of 2008 – MBI market valuation for that deal is $300 million over the life of the product.

5. An $8 million company, with $600 million plus of bluesky potential, all unfolding in the next year, should get people’s attention.

Recently a lot of stock has moved now into stronger hands. More news flow should impact the company’s capitalization in a positive way.

I think we’ve really turned the corner on this story.